{"id":1726,"date":"2025-11-05T23:59:44","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T23:59:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/toposuranos.com\/InvestorInsight\/?p=1726"},"modified":"2025-11-06T00:46:27","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T00:46:27","slug":"%e0%a4%ae%e0%a5%8b%e0%a4%82%e0%a4%9f%e0%a5%87-%e0%a4%95%e0%a4%be%e0%a4%b0%e0%a5%8d%e0%a4%b2%e0%a5%8b-%e0%a4%b8%e0%a4%bf%e0%a4%ae%e0%a5%81%e0%a4%b2%e0%a5%87%e0%a4%b6%e0%a4%a8-%e0%a4%ae%e0%a5%87","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/toposuranos.com\/InvestorInsight\/hi\/2025\/11\/05\/%e0%a4%ae%e0%a5%8b%e0%a4%82%e0%a4%9f%e0%a5%87-%e0%a4%95%e0%a4%be%e0%a4%b0%e0%a5%8d%e0%a4%b2%e0%a5%8b-%e0%a4%b8%e0%a4%bf%e0%a4%ae%e0%a5%81%e0%a4%b2%e0%a5%87%e0%a4%b6%e0%a4%a8-%e0%a4%ae%e0%a5%87\/","title":{"rendered":"\u092e\u094b\u0902\u091f\u0947 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0932\u094b \u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928: \u092e\u0947\u0930\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092c\u0902\u0927\u0928 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a\u0923 \u092b\u093c\u0930\u0935\u0930\u0940 2024 \u2013 \u0905\u0915\u094d\u0924\u0942\u092c\u0930 2025<\/h1> <h2>\u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0902\u0915\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u093e\u0930\u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936\u093f\u0924\u093e \u0932\u093e\u0928\u093e"},"content":{"rendered":"<h1>\u092e\u094b\u0902\u091f\u0947 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0932\u094b \u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928: \u092e\u0947\u0930\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092c\u0902\u0927\u0928 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a\u0923 \u092b\u093c\u0930\u0935\u0930\u0940 2024 \u2013 \u0905\u0915\u094d\u0924\u0942\u092c\u0930 2025<\/h1>\n<h2>\u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0902\u0915\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u093e\u0930\u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936\u093f\u0924\u093e \u0932\u093e\u0928\u093e<\/h2>\n<p>\u090f\u0915 \u0909\u0925\u0932-\u092a\u0941\u0925\u0932 \u092d\u0930\u0947 \u0905\u0915\u094d\u0924\u0942\u092c\u0930 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u092e\u093e\u092a\u0928 \u092a\u0930, \u092e\u0948\u0902\u0928\u0947 \u0905\u092a\u0928\u0940 <strong>\u092e\u094b\u0902\u091f\u0947 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0932\u094b \u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928<\/strong> \u091a\u0932\u093e\u0908 \u0924\u093e\u0915\u093f <strong>1 \u092b\u093c\u0930\u0935\u0930\u0940 2024<\/strong> \u0938\u0947 \u0935\u093e\u0938\u094d\u0924\u0935\u093f\u0915 \u092a\u0942\u0901\u091c\u0940 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0928\u093f\u0935\u0947\u0936 \u0936\u0941\u0930\u0942 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u093e\u0926 \u0938\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0930\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092c\u0902\u0927\u0928 \u0915\u0940 \u0917\u0941\u0923\u0935\u0924\u094d\u0924\u093e \u0915\u093e \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e-\u0906\u0927\u093e\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0902\u0915\u0928 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e \u0938\u0915\u0947\u0964 \u0907\u0938 \u0930\u0928 \u0915\u0940 \u0905\u0935\u0932\u094b\u0915\u0928 \u0905\u0935\u0927\u093f <strong>30 \u0905\u0915\u094d\u0924\u0942\u092c\u0930 2025<\/strong> \u0915\u094b \u0938\u092e\u093e\u092a\u094d\u0924 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u092f\u0939 \u0905\u092d\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0938 \u092e\u0941\u091d\u0947 \u090f\u0915 \u0935\u0938\u094d\u0924\u0941\u0928\u093f\u0937\u094d\u0920 \u0938\u0902\u0926\u0930\u094d\u092d \u0926\u0947\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u2014\u0935\u0939 <em>\u092e\u093e\u0928\u0915<\/em> \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0947 \u092e\u0948\u0902 \u0939\u0930 \u092a\u0941\u0928\u0930\u093e\u0935\u0943\u0924\u094d\u0924\u093f \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092a\u093e\u0930 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e \u091a\u093e\u0939\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0942\u0901\u2014\u0914\u0930 eToro \u092a\u0930 \u092e\u0947\u0930\u093e \u092a\u094b\u0930\u094d\u091f\u092b\u094b\u0932\u093f\u092f\u094b \u0915\u0949\u092a\u0940 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u0947 \u0935\u093e\u0932\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u092a\u093e\u0930\u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936\u093f\u0924\u093e \u092d\u0940 \u091c\u094b\u0921\u093c\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/p>\n<h3>\u092e\u094b\u0902\u091f\u0947 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0932\u094b \u0915\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902<\/h3>\n<p>\u0915\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0902\u0915\u093f \u092f\u0939 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0928\u0939\u0940\u0902 \u0932\u0917\u093e\u0924\u093e, \u092c\u0932\u094d\u0915\u093f \u091c\u094b \u0939\u094b \u091a\u0941\u0915\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0909\u0938\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0924\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0935\u093e\u0926 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 <em>\u092e\u093e\u0938\u093f\u0915 \u0930\u093f\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928<\/em> \u0938\u0947 \u092e\u0948\u0902 \u0914\u0938\u0924 \u0914\u0930 \u0905\u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0915\u093e \u0906\u0915\u0932\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0942\u0901 \u0914\u0930 \u0909\u0928\u094d\u0939\u0940\u0902 \u092e\u093e\u092a\u0926\u0902\u0921\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0939\u091c\u093c\u093e\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u093f\u0924 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a-\u092a\u0925\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0942\u0901\u0964 \u0907\u0938\u0938\u0947 \u092e\u0948\u0902 \u0905\u092a\u0928\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u094b\u0938\u0947\u0938 \u0915\u093e \u0938\u092e\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0938\u0941\u0938\u0902\u0917\u0924 \u0914\u0930 \u0924\u0941\u0932\u0928\u0940\u092f \u092e\u093e\u0928\u0926\u0902\u0921 \u0938\u0947 \u0911\u0921\u093f\u091f \u0915\u0930 \u092a\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0942\u0901\u0964<\/p>\n<h3>\u092e\u093e\u0928\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e\u090f\u0901 \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u0940\u092e\u093e\u090f\u0901<\/h3>\n<p>\u092a\u0925 \u092e\u093e\u0938\u093f\u0915 \u0906\u0935\u0943\u0924\u094d\u0924\u093f \u092a\u0930 n=21 (\u092b\u093c\u0930\u0935\u0930\u0940 2024\u2192\u0905\u0915\u094d\u091f\u0942\u092c\u0930 2025) \u0938\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928\u093f\u0924 \u092a\u0948\u0930\u093e\u092e\u0940\u091f\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0909\u0924\u094d\u092a\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u093f\u090f \u091c\u093e\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0923\u093e\u092e \u0907\u0928 \u0921\u093e\u091f\u093e \u0914\u0930 \u092e\u093e\u0928\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u092a\u0930 \u0938\u0936\u0930\u094d\u0924 \u0939\u0948\u0902; \u092f\u0947 \u0915\u094b\u0908 \u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f\u0935\u093e\u0923\u0940 \u0928\u0939\u0940\u0902 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964 \u0905\u0928\u093f\u0936\u094d\u091a\u093f\u0924\u0924\u093e \u0914\u0930 \u091f\u0947\u0932\u094d\u0938 \u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936\u093e\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092d\u0935\u091c\u0928\u094d\u092f <em>bootstrap<\/em> (\u0915\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0902\u091f\u093e\u0907\u0932\/CVaR) \u0905\u092a\u0928\u093e\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0914\u0930 \u092c\u0922\u093c\u0924\u0940 <em>out-of-sample<\/em> \u0935\u093f\u0902\u0921\u094b\u091c\u093c \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u092a\u0930\u0938\u0947\u0902\u091f\u093e\u0907\u0932 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u092e\u0940\u0915\u094d\u0937\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u091c\u093e\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u091c\u094b\u0916\u093f\u092e \u0915\u0940 \u0915\u093f\u0938\u0940 \u092d\u0940 \u0935\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0916\u094d\u092f\u093e \u0915\u094b \u0938\u0902\u092d\u093e\u0935\u093f\u0924 \u0930\u0947\u091c\u0940\u092e-\u092a\u0930\u093f\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0924\u0928 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u0902\u0926\u0930\u094d\u092d \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0926\u0947\u0916\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0928\u093e \u091a\u093e\u0939\u093f\u090f\u0964<\/p>\n<h2>\u092e\u094b\u0902\u091f\u0947 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0932\u094b \u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928<\/h2>\n<h3>\u0907\u0928\u092a\u0941\u091f \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e<\/h3>\n<table class=\"data-table\" style=\"width:100%;border-collapse:collapse\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc\">\u0905\u0935\u0927\u093f<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc\">\u0905\u0935\u0932\u094b\u0915\u0928<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc\">\u092e\u093e\u0938\u093f\u0915 \u0914\u0938\u0924 (\u03bc)<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc\">\u092e\u093e\u0938\u093f\u0915 \u0905\u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930\u0924\u093e (\u03c3)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>1 \u092b\u093c\u0930\u0935\u0930\u0940 2024 \u0938\u0947 30 \u0905\u0915\u094d\u0924\u0942\u092c\u0930 2025<\/td>\n<td>21<\/td>\n<td>1,69&nbsp;%<\/td>\n<td>3,51&nbsp;%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<p>\u092f\u0926\u093f \u0906\u092a \u092e\u0947\u0930\u0947 \u0930\u093f\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928 \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u094b\u0930\u094d\u091f\u092b\u094b\u0932\u093f\u092f\u094b \u0915\u0947 \u0914\u0930 \u0935\u093f\u0936\u093f\u0937\u094d\u091f \u0935\u093f\u0935\u0930\u0923 \u0926\u0947\u0916\u0928\u093e \u091a\u093e\u0939\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u0924\u094b \u092e\u0947\u0930\u093e <a href=\"https:\/\/etoro.tw\/3WpJM7a\">eToro \u092a\u094d\u0930\u094b\u092b\u093c\u093e\u0907\u0932\u0964<\/a><\/p>\n<h3>\u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u0948\u0930\u093e\u092e\u0940\u091f\u0930<\/h3>\n<table class=\"data-table\" style=\"width:100%;border-collapse:collapse\">\n<thead>\n<tr>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc\">\u0938\u092e\u092f \u0915\u094d\u0937\u093f\u0924\u093f\u091c<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc\">\u092e\u0939\u0940\u0928\u0947<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc\">\u092a\u0941\u0928\u0930\u093e\u0935\u0943\u0924\u094d\u0924\u093f\u092f\u093e\u0901<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc\">\u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936\u093e\u0908 \u0917\u0908 \u092a\u0930\u0938\u0947\u0902\u091f\u093e\u0907\u0932 \u092c\u0948\u0902\u0921<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc\">\u0906\u0927\u093e\u0930<\/th>\n<th style=\"text-align:left;border-bottom:1px solid #ccc\">\u0906\u0935\u0943\u0924\u094d\u0924\u093f<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>5 \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0937<\/td>\n<td>60<\/td>\n<td>1000<\/td>\n<td>50% (P25\u2013P75), 80% (P10\u2013P90), 90% (P05\u2013P95)<\/td>\n<td>\u0906\u0930\u0902\u092d \u092e\u0947\u0902 1 \u0915\u093e \u092b\u093c\u0948\u0915\u094d\u091f\u0930<\/td>\n<td>\u092e\u093e\u0938\u093f\u0915<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<tr>\n<td>10 \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0937<\/td>\n<td>120<\/td>\n<td>5000<\/td>\n<td>50% (P25\u2013P75), 80% (P10\u2013P90), 90% (P05\u2013P95)<\/td>\n<td>\u0906\u0930\u0902\u092d \u092e\u0947\u0902 1 \u0915\u093e \u092b\u093c\u0948\u0915\u094d\u091f\u0930<\/td>\n<td>\u092e\u093e\u0938\u093f\u0915<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<h2>\u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0923\u093e\u092e<\/h2>\n<p>\u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928 2024 \u0914\u0930 2025 \u0915\u0947 \u092c\u0940\u091a \u0926\u0947\u0916\u0947 \u0917\u090f \u0938\u0941\u0927\u093e\u0930 \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0930\u0942\u092a \u090f\u0915 \u0915\u0947\u0902\u0926\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092f, \u092c\u0922\u093c\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0941\u0908 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a-\u092a\u0925 \u0915\u093e \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0923\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a\u093f\u0924 \u092e\u093e\u0927\u094d\u092f\u093f\u0915\u093e \u092c\u0922\u093c\u0924\u0940 \u0930\u0939\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948 \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u093e\u092e\u093e\u0928\u094d\u092f \u092c\u0948\u0902\u0921 \u0905\u092a\u0947\u0915\u094d\u0937\u093e\u0915\u0943\u0924 \u0938\u0902\u0915\u0941\u091a\u093f\u0924 \u0930\u0939\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u091c\u094b \u0938\u0902\u0915\u0947\u0924 \u0926\u0947\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0924\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u092a\u0926\u094d\u0927\u0924\u093f \u0938\u094d\u0935\u0940\u0915\u0943\u0924 \u091c\u094b\u0916\u093f\u092e-\u0938\u094d\u0924\u0930 \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0905\u091a\u094d\u091b\u0940 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0930\u093f\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928 \u0909\u0924\u094d\u092a\u0928\u094d\u0928 \u0915\u0930 \u0930\u0939\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li><strong>\u090a\u0930\u094d\u0927\u094d\u0935 \u0938\u0902\u0917\u0924\u093f:<\/strong> \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a-\u092a\u0925\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u093e \u0915\u0947\u0902\u0926\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092f \u092a\u0948\u091f\u0930\u094d\u0928 \u0928\u092e\u0942\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0940 \u0938\u093e\u0932-\u0926\u0930-\u0938\u093e\u0932 \u0939\u0941\u0908 \u0938\u0941\u0927\u093e\u0930 \u0938\u0947 \u092e\u0947\u0932 \u0916\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 (2024 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928\u093f\u0924 \u092e\u093e\u0938\u093f\u0915 \u0914\u0938\u0924 1,20 % \u092c\u0928\u093e\u092e 2025 \u092e\u0947\u0902 2,22 % \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u0915\u093e\u0930\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u092e\u0939\u0940\u0928\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0940 \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u0906\u0935\u0943\u0924\u094d\u0924\u093f)\u0964 \u092f\u0939 \u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u0939\u093e\u0932 \u0915\u0940 \u0928\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092a\u093e\u0926\u0928 \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u0920\u094b\u0938 \u0930\u0939\u0940\u0964<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0938\u0940\u092e\u093f\u0924 \u091c\u094b\u0916\u093f\u092e:<\/strong> 5 \u0914\u0930 10 \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0937 \u0915\u0947 \u0915\u094d\u0937\u093f\u0924\u093f\u091c \u092a\u0930 \u0928\u0915\u093e\u0930\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u092a\u0942\u0901\u091b\u0947\u0902 \u092e\u0927\u094d\u092f\u092e \u0930\u0939\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964 \u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u093e\u0924\u094d\u092e\u0915 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0926\u0943\u0936\u094d\u092f \u0938\u0902\u091a\u092f\u0940 \u0935\u0943\u0926\u094d\u0927\u093f \u0915\u094b \u0936\u0942\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0938\u0947 \u090a\u092a\u0930 \u092c\u0928\u093e\u090f \u0930\u0916\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u094b 2025 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0932\u0917\u092d\u0917 4 \u0915\u0947 \u092e\u0927\u094d\u092f\u092e \u091c\u094b\u0916\u093f\u092e-\u092a\u094d\u0930\u094b\u092b\u093c\u093e\u0907\u0932 \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0930\u0942\u092a \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0905\u0928\u0941\u0915\u0942\u0932 \u0935\u093f\u0937\u092e\u0924\u093e:<\/strong> \u092b\u0948\u0928-\u091a\u093e\u0930\u094d\u091f \u0926\u093e\u090f\u0901 \u0913\u0930 \u091d\u0941\u0915\u093e\u0935 \u0926\u093f\u0916\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u0915\u092e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0909\u091a\u094d\u091a \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0923\u093e\u092e \u0935\u093e\u0932\u0947 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0926\u0943\u0936\u094d\u092f \u092e\u094c\u091c\u0942\u0926 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u092e\u093e\u0927\u094d\u092f\u093f\u0915\u093e \u091f\u093f\u0915\u093e\u090a \u0930\u0939\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u094b \u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u0905\u0938\u093e\u0927\u093e\u0930\u0923 \u092e\u0939\u0940\u0928\u0947 \u0906\u0927\u093e\u0930 \u0938\u0947 \u0938\u092e\u091d\u094c\u0924\u093e \u0915\u093f\u090f \u092c\u093f\u0928\u093e \u092f\u094b\u0917\u0926\u093e\u0928 \u0926\u0947\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0906\u092a\u0947\u0915\u094d\u0937\u093f\u0915 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936\u0928 \u0938\u0924\u094d\u092f\u093e\u092a\u093f\u0924:<\/strong> YTD 2025 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092e\u0941\u0916 \u0935\u0948\u0936\u094d\u0935\u093f\u0915 \u0938\u0942\u091a\u0915\u093e\u0902\u0915\u094b\u0902 \u0938\u0947 \u092c\u0947\u0939\u0924\u0930 \u0939\u0948 \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928 \u0938\u0902\u0915\u0947\u0924 \u0926\u0947\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 \u0915\u093f \u092f\u0939 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936\u0928 \u0915\u093f\u0938\u0940 \u090f\u0915 \u0905\u0938\u093e\u0927\u093e\u0930\u0923 \u092e\u093e\u0939 \u092a\u0930 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092d\u0930 \u0928\u0939\u0940\u0902, \u092c\u0932\u094d\u0915\u093f \u0928\u092e\u0942\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0930\u0942\u092a \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0923\u093e\u092e\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0935\u093f\u0924\u0930\u0923 \u092a\u0930 \u0906\u0927\u093e\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n<li><strong>\u0938\u0902\u091a\u093e\u0932\u0928\u0917\u0924 \u0928\u093f\u0939\u093f\u0924\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0925:<\/strong> \u0930\u093f\u092c\u0948\u0932\u0947\u0902\u0938\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u0915\u0940 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0936\u093e\u0938\u0928 \u092c\u0928\u093e\u090f \u0930\u0916\u0947\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u0932\u0940\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c \u0915\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917 \u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0947\u0902\u0964 \u0905\u0917\u0932\u0940 \u0905\u0926\u094d\u092f\u0924\u0928 \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0909\u0926\u094d\u0926\u0947\u0936\u094d\u092f \u092e\u093e\u0927\u094d\u092f\u093f\u0915\u093e \u0915\u094b \u090a\u092a\u0930 \u0909\u0920\u093e\u0928\u093e \u0914\u0930 P25\u2013P75 \u092c\u0948\u0902\u0921 \u0915\u094b \u0938\u0902\u0915\u0930\u093e \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e \u0939\u0948, \u0935\u093f\u0936\u0947\u0937 \u0927\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0928 5\u0935\u0947\u0902 \u092a\u0930\u0938\u0947\u0902\u091f\u093e\u0907\u0932 \u092a\u0930\u2014\u091c\u094b \u0926\u0941\u0930\u094d\u0932\u092d \u0917\u093f\u0930\u093e\u0935\u091f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0928\u093f\u092f\u0902\u0924\u094d\u0930\u0923 \u0915\u093e \u0938\u0902\u0915\u0947\u0924\u0915 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<figure style=\"margin:1.5rem 0\">\n  <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/toposuranos.com\/InvestorInsight\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/montecarlo-5a.jpg\" alt=\"5 \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0937 \u0915\u0940 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a\u0923: \u092a\u0930\u0938\u0947\u0902\u091f\u093e\u0907\u0932 \u092c\u0948\u0902\u0921 \u0914\u0930 \u092e\u093e\u0927\u094d\u092f\u093f\u0915\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a-\u092a\u0925\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto\" \/><figcaption style=\"font-size:0.95em;color:#555\">5 \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0937 \u0915\u0940 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a\u0923\u0964 50 % (P25\u2013P75), 80 % (P10\u2013P90) \u0914\u0930 90 % (P05\u2013P95) \u092c\u0948\u0902\u0921\u0964 \u092a\u0940\u0932\u0940 \u0930\u0947\u0916\u093e \u092e\u093e\u0927\u094d\u092f\u093f\u0915\u093e \u0926\u093f\u0916\u093e\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure style=\"margin:1.5rem 0\">\n  <img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/toposuranos.com\/InvestorInsight\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/11\/montecarlo-10a.jpg\" alt=\"10 \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0937 \u0915\u0940 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a\u0923: \u092a\u0930\u0938\u0947\u0902\u091f\u093e\u0907\u0932 \u092c\u0948\u0902\u0921 \u0914\u0930 \u092e\u093e\u0927\u094d\u092f\u093f\u0915\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a-\u092a\u0925\" style=\"width:100%;height:auto\" \/><figcaption style=\"font-size:0.95em;color:#555\">10 \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0937 \u0915\u0940 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a\u0923\u0964 50 % (P25\u2013P75), 80 % (P10\u2013P90) \u0914\u0930 90 % (P05\u2013P95) \u092c\u0948\u0902\u0921\u0964 \u092a\u0940\u0932\u0940 \u0930\u0947\u0916\u093e \u092e\u093e\u0927\u094d\u092f\u093f\u0915\u093e \u0926\u093f\u0916\u093e\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0964<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<h2>\u092d\u0935\u093f\u0937\u094d\u092f \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0927\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0928 \u0926\u0947\u0928\u0947 \u092f\u094b\u0917\u094d\u092f \u0924\u0924\u094d\u0935<\/h2>\n<p>\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0924\u092e\u093e\u0928 \u0938\u0940\u092e\u093e \u0928\u092e\u0942\u0928\u093e-\u0906\u0915\u093e\u0930 \u0939\u0948; \u091c\u0948\u0938\u0947-\u091c\u0948\u0938\u0947 \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u092e\u0939\u0940\u0928\u0947 \u0926\u0947\u0916\u0947 \u091c\u093e\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u0906\u0915\u0932\u0928 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 (\u0924\u094d\u0930\u0941\u091f\u093f \u0932\u0917\u092d\u0917 ~1\/\u221an \u0917\u093f\u0930\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948) \u0914\u0930 \u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928 \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u0935\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0935\u0938\u0928\u0940\u092f \u092c\u0928\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u0907\u0938\u0947 \u092c\u0947\u0939\u0924\u0930 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948 <strong>\u0930\u094b\u0932\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u0935\u093f\u0902\u0921\u094b \u0938\u0947 \u092a\u0941\u0928\u0903-\u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928<\/strong> \u0915\u0930\u0915\u0947 \u091c\u094b \u0939\u0930 \u0928\u090f \u092e\u0939\u0940\u0928\u0947 \u0915\u094b \u0936\u093e\u092e\u093f\u0932 \u0915\u0930\u0947, \u0924\u0925\u093e n \u091b\u094b\u091f\u093e \u0930\u0939\u0928\u0947 \u0924\u0915 \u092c\u0947\u0902\u091a\u092e\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0915 \u0915\u0940 \u0913\u0930 <em>\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0940\u0928\u0915\u0947\u091c (shrinkage)<\/em> \u0932\u093e\u0917\u0942 \u0915\u0930\u0915\u0947, \u0924\u093e\u0915\u093f \u0938\u093e\u0915\u094d\u0937\u094d\u092f \u092c\u0922\u093c\u0928\u0947 \u092a\u0930 \u201c\u090f\u0902\u0915\u0930\u201d \u0915\u093e \u092d\u093e\u0930 \u0918\u091f\u0947 \u0914\u0930 \u0914\u0938\u0924 \u0935 \u0905\u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0940 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0924\u0928\u0936\u0940\u0932\u0924\u093e \u092c\u093f\u0928\u093e \u0913\u0935\u0930\u092b\u093f\u091f\u093f\u0902\u0917 \u0915\u0947 \u0915\u092e \u0939\u094b\u0964 <strong>\u091f\u0947\u0932\u094d\u0938 \u0914\u0930 \u0915\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0902\u091f\u093e\u0907\u0932\u094d\u0938<\/strong> \u0915\u0940 \u092a\u0922\u093c\u093e\u0908 \u092d\u0940 \u0938\u0941\u0927\u093e\u0930\u0940 \u091c\u093e \u0938\u0915\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948: \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0923\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u092a\u0930\u0938\u0947\u0902\u091f\u093e\u0907\u0932 \u0914\u0930 <strong>CVaR<\/strong> \u0915\u092e \u0905\u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902; \u0907\u0938\u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092d\u0935\u091c\u0928\u094d\u092f <em>\u092c\u0942\u091f\u0938\u094d\u091f\u094d\u0930\u0948\u092a<\/em> \u0938\u0947 \u0915\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0902\u091f\u093e\u0907\u0932-\u0905\u0928\u093f\u0936\u094d\u091a\u093f\u0924\u0924\u093e \u092e\u093e\u092a\u0940 \u091c\u093e\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948 \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u0930\u094d\u092f\u093e\u092a\u094d\u0924 \u0905\u0924\u093f\u0930\u0947\u0915 \u0939\u094b\u0928\u0947 \u092a\u0930 <em>\u090f\u0915\u094d\u0938\u091f\u094d\u0930\u0940\u092e-\u0935\u0948\u0932\u094d\u092f\u0942 \u0925\u094d\u092f\u094b\u0930\u0940<\/em> (\u0925\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0936\u0939\u094b\u0932\u094d\u0921 \u0938\u0947 \u090a\u092a\u0930 \u092a\u0940\u0915) \u0938\u0947 \u0926\u0941\u0930\u094d\u0932\u092d \u0918\u091f\u0928\u093e\u0913\u0902 \u0915\u094b \u092c\u0947\u0939\u0924\u0930 \u090f\u0902\u0915\u0930 \u0915\u093f\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 <strong>\u0915\u093e\u0932\u093f\u0915 \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092d\u0930\u0924\u093e<\/strong> \u0915\u094b 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\u0905\u0935\u0936\u0947\u0937\u094b\u0902 \u0938\u0947 \u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e \u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917\u0940 \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0938\u0947 \u0930\u0928 \u0914\u0930 <em>\u0915\u094d\u0932\u0938\u094d\u091f\u0930\u093f\u0902\u0917<\/em> \u092a\u0941\u0928\u0930\u094d\u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u092e\u093f\u0924 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964 <strong>\u0935\u093f\u0937\u092e \u0905\u0935\u0927\u093f\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u092e\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0923<\/strong> \u0915\u094b \u0936\u093e\u0938\u0928-\u092a\u0930\u093f\u0935\u0930\u094d\u0924\u0928 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u0924\u093e \u0932\u0917\u093e\u0915\u0930 \u0918\u091f\u093e\u092f\u093e \u091c\u093e \u0938\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948: \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u0907\u0924\u093f\u0939\u093e\u0938 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u0921\u093f\u091f\u0947\u0915\u094d\u091f\u0930\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0940 \u0936\u0915\u094d\u0924\u093f \u092c\u0922\u093c\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948, \u0936\u093e\u0938\u0928-\u0935\u093e\u0930 \u092a\u0948\u0930\u093e\u092e\u0940\u091f\u0930 \u0906\u0901\u0915\u0947 \u091c\u093e\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0926\u0943\u0936\u094d\u092f \u0909\u0928\u0915\u0940 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0924\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0905\u0928\u0941\u0938\u093e\u0930 \u0938\u0902\u092f\u094b\u091c\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u093f\u090f \u091c\u093e\u0924\u0947 \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0938\u0947 \u092e\u093f\u0936\u094d\u0930\u0923-\u092a\u0942\u0930\u094d\u0935\u093e\u0917\u094d\u0930\u0939 \u0918\u091f\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948\u0964 \u0905\u0902\u0924 \u092e\u0947\u0902, <strong>\u0928\u093f\u0930\u0902\u0924\u0930 \u0915\u0948\u0932\u093f\u092c\u094d\u0930\u0947\u0936\u0928<\/strong> P5\u2013P95 \u0915\u0935\u0930\u0947\u091c \u0914\u0930 <em>PIT<\/em> \u0915\u0940 \u091c\u093e\u0901\u091a \u092c\u0922\u093c\u0924\u0940 <em>\u0906\u0909\u091f-\u0911\u092b-\u0938\u0948\u092e\u094d\u092a\u0932<\/em> \u0935\u093f\u0902\u0921\u094b \u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0915\u0930\u0915\u0947 \u092e\u091c\u092c\u0942\u0924 \u0939\u094b\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0948; \u0932\u0917\u093e\u0924\u093e\u0930 \u0935\u093f\u091a\u0932\u0928 \u0926\u093f\u0916\u0928\u0947 \u092a\u0930 \u092e\u093e\u0928\u094d\u092f\u0924\u093e\u090f\u0901 \u0938\u092e\u093e\u092f\u094b\u091c\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0940 \u091c\u093e\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0902\u0964 \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u092e\u0939\u0940\u0928\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925, \u092f\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0930\u093f\u092f\u093e\u090f\u0901 \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u0908\u092e\u093e\u0928\u0926\u093e\u0930 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0926\u0943\u0936\u094d\u092f-\u092c\u0948\u0902\u0921 \u0914\u0930 \u0905\u0927\u093f\u0915 \u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930, \u0928\u093f\u0930\u094d\u0923\u092f-\u0909\u092a\u092f\u094b\u0917\u0940 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<em>\u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0924\u093e-\u0906\u0927\u093e\u0930\u093f\u0924 \u0922\u093e\u0901\u091a\u093e<\/em> \u0939\u0948, \u091c\u093f\u0938\u0915\u0940 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092f\u093f\u0915\u0924\u093e\u090f\u0901 \u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928 \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u092e\u092f \u0905\u0928\u0941\u092e\u093e\u0928\u093f\u0924 \u0915\u0940 \u091c\u093e\u0924\u0940 \u0939\u0948\u0902 \u0914\u0930 \u0909\u0928\u094d\u0939\u0940\u0902 \u092c\u093e\u091c\u093e\u0930-\u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0924\u093f\u092f\u094b\u0902 \u0915\u0947 \u0924\u0939\u0924 \u092e\u093e\u0928\u094d\u092f \u0939\u0948\u0902, \u091c\u093f\u0928\u092e\u0947\u0902 \u0921\u0947\u091f\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u093e\u092a\u094d\u0924 \u0939\u0941\u0906\u0964 \u092f\u0939 \u0938\u092e\u092f \u0915\u0947 \u0938\u093e\u0925 \u092e\u0947\u0930\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092c\u0902\u0927\u0928 \u0915\u0940 \u0924\u0941\u0932\u0928\u093e \u0915\u0947 \u0932\u093f\u090f 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[&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1692,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-container-style":"default","site-container-layout":"default","site-sidebar-layout":"default","disable-article-header":"default","disable-site-header":"default","disable-site-footer":"default","disable-content-area-spacing":"default","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[74],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1726","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized-hi"],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v25.7 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>\u092e\u094b\u0902\u091f\u0947 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0932\u094b \u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928: \u092e\u0947\u0930\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092c\u0902\u0927\u0928 \u0915\u093e \u092a\u094d\u0930\u0915\u094d\u0937\u0947\u092a\u0923 \u092b\u093c\u0930\u0935\u0930\u0940 2024 \u2013 \u0905\u0915\u094d\u0924\u0942\u092c\u0930 2025 \u092e\u0942\u0932\u094d\u092f\u093e\u0902\u0915\u0928 \u0915\u0930\u0928\u093e \u0914\u0930 \u092a\u093e\u0930\u0926\u0930\u094d\u0936\u093f\u0924\u093e \u0932\u093e\u0928\u093e - Investor Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"\u092e\u0948\u0902 \u092e\u094b\u0902\u091f\u0947 \u0915\u093e\u0930\u094d\u0932\u094b \u0938\u093f\u092e\u0941\u0932\u0947\u0936\u0928 (\u092b\u093c\u0930\u0935\u0930\u0940 2024\u2013\u0905\u0915\u094d\u0924\u0942\u092c\u0930 2025) \u0938\u0947 \u0905\u092a\u0928\u0947 \u092a\u094d\u0930\u092c\u0902\u0927\u0928 \u0915\u093e \u0911\u0921\u093f\u091f \u0915\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0939\u0942\u0901: \u0914\u0938\u0924, \u0905\u0938\u094d\u0925\u093f\u0930\u0924\u093e \u0914\u0930 5\u201310 \u0935\u0930\u094d\u0937 \u0915\u0947 \u092a\u0930\u093f\u0926\u0943\u0936\u094d\u092f\u0964 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