{"id":1721,"date":"2025-11-05T23:59:44","date_gmt":"2025-11-05T23:59:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/toposuranos.com\/InvestorInsight\/?p=1721"},"modified":"2025-11-06T00:47:30","modified_gmt":"2025-11-06T00:47:30","slug":"simulation-de-monte-carlo-projection-de-ma-gestion-fevrier-2024-octobre-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/toposuranos.com\/InvestorInsight\/fr\/2025\/11\/05\/simulation-de-monte-carlo-projection-de-ma-gestion-fevrier-2024-octobre-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Simulation de Monte Carlo : Projection de ma gestion f\u00e9vrier 2024 \u2013 octobre 2025"},"content":{"rendered":"

Simulation de Monte Carlo : Projection de ma gestion f\u00e9vrier 2024 \u2013 octobre 2025<\/h1>\n

\u00c9valuer et rendre transparent<\/h2>\n

\u00c0 la cl\u00f4ture d\u2019un octobre mouvement\u00e9, j\u2019ai r\u00e9alis\u00e9 une Simulation de Monte Carlo<\/strong> afin d\u2019\u00e9valuer, \u00e0 partir des donn\u00e9es, la qualit\u00e9 de ma gestion depuis que j\u2019ai commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 investir avec du capital r\u00e9el le 1er f\u00e9vrier 2024<\/strong>. La fen\u00eatre d\u2019observation de cette s\u00e9rie s\u2019ach\u00e8ve le 30 octobre 2025<\/strong>. Cet exercice me fournit une r\u00e9f\u00e9rence objective, la barre<\/em> que je veux franchir \u00e0 chaque it\u00e9ration, et apporte de la transparence \u00e0 celles et ceux qui copient mon portefeuille sur eToro.<\/p>\n

Pourquoi Monte Carlo<\/h3>\n

Parce qu\u2019elle ne devine pas : elle traduit ce qui s\u2019est d\u00e9j\u00e0 produit en probabilit\u00e9s. \u00c0 partir des rendements mensuels<\/em>, j\u2019estime la moyenne et la volatilit\u00e9 et, avec ces param\u00e8tres, je simule des milliers de trajectoires plausibles. Cela me permet d\u2019auditer mon processus selon un crit\u00e8re coh\u00e9rent et comparable dans le temps.<\/p>\n

Hypoth\u00e8ses et limites<\/h3>\n

Les trajectoires sont g\u00e9n\u00e9r\u00e9es \u00e0 une fr\u00e9quence mensuelle \u00e0 partir de param\u00e8tres estim\u00e9s sur n=21 (f\u00e9vr. 2024\u2192oct. 2025). Les r\u00e9sultats sont conditionn\u00e9s par ces donn\u00e9es et hypoth\u00e8ses ; ils ne constituent pas une pr\u00e9vision. Pour refl\u00e9ter l\u2019incertitude et les queues de distribution, on emploie un bootstrap<\/em> empirique (quantiles\/CVaR) et on examine la stabilit\u00e9 des percentiles avec des fen\u00eatres hors \u00e9chantillon<\/em> croissantes. Toute lecture du risque doit tenir compte de possibles changements de r\u00e9gime.<\/p>\n

Simulation de Monte Carlo<\/h2>\n

Donn\u00e9es d\u2019entr\u00e9e<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n
Fen\u00eatre<\/th>\nObservations<\/th>\nMoyenne mensuelle (\u03bc)<\/th>\nVolatilit\u00e9 mensuelle (\u03c3)<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
1 f\u00e9vr. 2024 au 30 oct. 2025<\/td>\n21<\/td>\n1,69 %<\/td>\n3,51 %<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

Pour conna\u00eetre des d\u00e9tails plus pr\u00e9cis sur mes rendements et mon portefeuille, consulte mon profil eToro.<\/a><\/p>\n

Param\u00e8tres de la simulation<\/h3>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
Horizon<\/th>\nMois<\/th>\nIt\u00e9rations<\/th>\nBandes affich\u00e9es<\/th>\nBase<\/th>\nFr\u00e9quence<\/th>\n<\/tr>\n<\/thead>\n
5 ans<\/td>\n60<\/td>\n1000<\/td>\n50 % (P25\u2013P75), 80 % (P10\u2013P90), 90 % (P05\u2013P95)<\/td>\nFacteur 1 au d\u00e9part<\/td>\nMensuelle<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
10 ans<\/td>\n120<\/td>\n5000<\/td>\n50 % (P25\u2013P75), 80 % (P10\u2013P90), 90 % (P05\u2013P95)<\/td>\nFacteur 1 au d\u00e9part<\/td>\nMensuelle<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

R\u00e9sultats de la simulation<\/h2>\n

La simulation d\u00e9crit une trajectoire centrale de croissance coh\u00e9rente avec l\u2019am\u00e9lioration observ\u00e9e entre 2024 et 2025. La m\u00e9diane projet\u00e9e est ascendante et les bandes usuelles restent contenues, ce qui sugg\u00e8re que la m\u00e9thode actuelle g\u00e9n\u00e8re des rendements d\u2019une bonne stabilit\u00e9 pour le niveau de risque assum\u00e9.<\/p>\n

    \n
  • Coh\u00e9rence \u00e0 la hausse :<\/strong> le sch\u00e9ma central des trajectoires co\u00efncide avec l\u2019am\u00e9lioration interannuelle de l\u2019\u00e9chantillon (moyenne mensuelle approximative 1,20 % en 2024 contre 2,22 % en 2025 et fr\u00e9quence plus \u00e9lev\u00e9e de mois positifs). Cela confirme que l\u2019ex\u00e9cution r\u00e9cente a \u00e9t\u00e9 plus solide.<\/li>\n
  • Risque contenu :<\/strong> les queues n\u00e9gatives demeurent mod\u00e9r\u00e9es sur les horizons de 5 et 10 ans. Le sc\u00e9nario conservateur maintient une croissance cumul\u00e9e non nulle, en ligne avec un profil de risque moyen proche de 4 en 2025.<\/li>\n
  • Asym\u00e9trie favorable :<\/strong> l\u2019\u00e9ventail pr\u00e9sente un biais \u00e0 droite. Il existe des sc\u00e9narios de r\u00e9sultat \u00e9lev\u00e9 \u00e0 faible probabilit\u00e9 tandis que la m\u00e9diane se maintient, ce qui indique que les mois exceptionnels tirent vers le haut sans compromettre la base.<\/li>\n
  • Performance relative valid\u00e9e :<\/strong> le YTD 2025 d\u00e9passe les principaux indices mondiaux et la simulation sugg\u00e8re que cette performance ne d\u00e9pend pas d\u2019un seul mois exceptionnel, mais d\u2019une distribution de r\u00e9sultats conforme \u00e0 l\u2019\u00e9chantillon.<\/li>\n
  • Implication op\u00e9rationnelle :<\/strong> maintenir la discipline des r\u00e9\u00e9quilibrages et l\u2019absence d\u2019effet de levier. Pour la prochaine mise \u00e0 jour, l\u2019objectif est d\u2019\u00e9lever la m\u00e9diane et de resserrer la bande P25\u2013P75, avec une attention particuli\u00e8re au 5e<\/sup> centile comme indicateur de contr\u00f4le des baisses peu fr\u00e9quentes.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n
    \n \"Projection
    \n Projection \u00e0 5 ans. Bandes 50 % (P25\u2013P75), 80 % (P10\u2013P90) et 90 % (P05\u2013P95). La ligne jaune indique la m\u00e9diane.
    \n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n
    \n \"Projection
    \n Projection \u00e0 10 ans. Bandes 50 % (P25\u2013P75), 80 % (P10\u2013P90) et 90 % (P05\u2013P95). La ligne jaune indique la m\u00e9diane.
    \n <\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

    \u00c9l\u00e9ments \u00e0 consid\u00e9rer pour la suite<\/h2>\n

    La contrainte actuelle est la taille de l\u2019\u00e9chantillon ; \u00e0 mesure que davantage de mois sont observ\u00e9s, les estimations se stabilisent (l\u2019erreur d\u00e9cro\u00eet d\u2019environ ~1\/\u221an) et la simulation gagne en fiabilit\u00e9. On peut am\u00e9liorer cela en r\u00e9-estimant avec une fen\u00eatre glissante<\/strong> qui int\u00e8gre chaque nouveau mois et en appliquant un shrinkage<\/em> vers un indice de r\u00e9f\u00e9rence tant que n reste faible, de sorte que l\u2019\u00ab ancre \u00bb perde du poids \u00e0 mesure que la preuve s\u2019accumule et que la variabilit\u00e9 de la moyenne et de la volatilit\u00e9 diminue sans sur-ajustement. On peut aussi perfectionner le traitement des queues et des quantiles<\/strong> : avec davantage d\u2019observations, les percentiles et le CVaR<\/strong> deviennent moins instables ; cela se fait via un bootstrap<\/em> empirique pour quantifier l\u2019incertitude des quantiles et, lorsque les d\u00e9passements sont suffisants, via la th\u00e9orie des valeurs extr\u00eames<\/em> (peaks over threshold) afin d\u2019ancrer les \u00e9v\u00e9nements rares. La d\u00e9pendance temporelle<\/strong> est mieux capt\u00e9e car une s\u00e9rie plus longue permet d\u2019estimer avec moins d\u2019erreur l\u2019autocorr\u00e9lation et la dynamique de volatilit\u00e9 ; ici, il est pertinent d\u2019utiliser un block bootstrap<\/em> (taille de bloc guid\u00e9e par l\u2019ACF) ou un GARCH simple et de simuler \u00e0 partir des r\u00e9sidus pour reproduire s\u00e9quences et clustering<\/em>. Le m\u00e9lange de p\u00e9riodes dissemblables<\/strong> se r\u00e9duit en d\u00e9tectant les changements de r\u00e9gime : avec plus d\u2019historique, les d\u00e9tecteurs gagnent en puissance, les param\u00e8tres sont estim\u00e9s par r\u00e9gime et les sc\u00e9narios combin\u00e9s selon leur probabilit\u00e9, ce qui \u00e9vite le biais de m\u00e9lange. Enfin, la calibration continue<\/strong> s\u2019affermit en v\u00e9rifiant la couverture P5\u2013P95 et le PIT<\/em> sur des fen\u00eatres out-of-sample<\/em> croissantes ; en cas d\u2019\u00e9carts persistants, on ajuste les hypoth\u00e8ses. Avec davantage de mois, ces pratiques produisent des bandes de sc\u00e9narios plus honn\u00eates et des m\u00e9triques op\u00e9rationnelles plus stables et utiles pour d\u00e9cider.<\/p>\n

    Note importante<\/h3>\n

    Ce n\u2019est pas une pr\u00e9diction. Si le r\u00e9gime de march\u00e9 change, les probabilit\u00e9s changent aussi. En revanche, elle offre un cadre probabiliste<\/em> de r\u00e9sultats possibles, avec des probabilit\u00e9s estim\u00e9es au moment de la simulation et valides dans les conditions de march\u00e9 dans lesquelles les donn\u00e9es ont \u00e9t\u00e9 obtenues. C\u2019est une r\u00e9f\u00e9rence pour comparer ma gestion dans le temps, pas une garantie.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

    Simulation de Monte Carlo : Projection de ma gestion f\u00e9vrier 2024 \u2013 octobre 2025 \u00c9valuer et rendre transparent \u00c0 la cl\u00f4ture d\u2019un octobre mouvement\u00e9, j\u2019ai r\u00e9alis\u00e9 une Simulation de Monte Carlo afin d\u2019\u00e9valuer, \u00e0 partir des donn\u00e9es, la qualit\u00e9 de ma gestion depuis que j\u2019ai commenc\u00e9 \u00e0 investir avec du capital r\u00e9el le 1er f\u00e9vrier […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1692,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"site-container-style":"default","site-container-layout":"default","site-sidebar-layout":"default","disable-article-header":"default","disable-site-header":"default","disable-site-footer":"default","disable-content-area-spacing":"default","_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-1721","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-uncategorized-fr"],"yoast_head":"\nSimulation de Monte Carlo : Projection de ma gestion f\u00e9vrier 2024 \u2013 octobre 2025 - Investor Insight<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"J\u2019audite ma gestion avec une Simulation de Monte Carlo (f\u00e9v. 2024\u2013oct. 2025) : moyenne, volatilit\u00e9 et sc\u00e9narios \u00e0 5\u201310 ans. 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